Fallacies

1. Vaccines are not a silver bullet. They help prevent the disease from developing, but those who have been vaccinated, if they come in contact with the virus, can still be an asymptomatic carrier and spread the virus to to others. It also takes time for immunity to build up, and it may wane over time.
2. For the majority of people who are not first responders or members of high-risk groups, the administration of a vaccine could be months away. In the meanwhile, if we let it, the virus will continue to kill, harm and disrupt our lives.

Virus prevalence isn’t something to adjust like saltiness in a soup. There is no happy medium. From the experience of nearly 200 countries, we now know every reactive strategy of half-measures has failed. The only successful strategy is to rapidly suppress the virus by stopping transmission and restoring normal activity once there is zero, or very close to zero, community transmission.

It’s never too late, in fact, it is the only way to reverse the exponential spread of the virus which does not increase steadily but jumps in leaps and bounds. At any point, enacting the full measures required can substantially halt the spread, as Slovakia and others have demonstrated.

Australia (25M), China (1.39B), Japan (126M), New Zealand (5M), South Korea (52M), Taiwan (24M), Thailand (69M), and Vietnam (96M) + Atlantic Canada’s 4 provinces ((NS, NB, NFLD, PEI, 2.4M) have diverse geography, population size and density, as well as degrees of democratic norms. Some are islands, but others share sizable borders. Several have used a cordon sanitaire (i.e. MAKE YOUR REGION AN ISLAND even if it isn’t one) to create an “island”.

Instead of focusing attention on the few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsightedness or selfishness, recognize that the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success.

Schools are a major vector for community spread between households. Children are just as likely to get infected, but more likely to be asymptomatic. Asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases have been demonstrated to be driving the spread of COVID-19. School closures were found to be the most effective NPI in reducing community spread, in comparison of 200+ countries over the first 9 months of the pandemic.

Low numbers are a sign that measures ARE working. This is the Catch 22 of epidemiology, if the prevention measures are successful, it appears that they aren’t needed.